According to its August Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center now expects a near- to below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, as the calming effects of El Nino continue to develop. But scientists say the season’s quiet start does not guarantee quiet times ahead. The season, which began June 1, is entering its historical peak period of August through October, when most storms form. The main change from the May outlook is an increased probability of a below-normal season, and an expectation of fewer named storms and hurricanes. Forecasters now say there is a 70 percent chance of 7 to 11 named storms, of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes, including one to two major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5).
NOAA Lowers Hurricane Season Outlook, Cautions Public Not to Let Down Guard